| When foot-and-mouth-disease (FMD) was identified in Miyazaki prefecture
in March 2000, an intensive serological and clinical survey was conducted
in the areas surrounding the index herd. To evaluate the survey, we estimated
the effectiveness of the survey through a stochastic model. The estimated
herd-level sensitivity, defined as the probability of detecting at least
one positive animal in a herd containing at least one infected animal,
averaged over 85%. The estimated herd-level specificity, defined as the
probability of finding no positive animal in a non-infected herd, was 98.6%.
The calculated probability that more than one infected herd was overlooked
was below 10.3% regardless of the assumed variation of the FMD transmissibility.
Taking into account the large number of herds involved and the limited
time allowed for conducting the survey, we concluded that the survey contributed
significantly to the early eradication of FMD in Miyazaki prefecture. (Applied
Epidemiology Section, Department of Epidemiology TEL +81-29-838-7769) |